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CDM supply potential for emission reductions up to the end of 2020

Report on the potential supply of pre-2020 credits

The transition of CERs issued under the CDM for use by Parties towards their NDCs is a key outstanding issue for Article 6 negotiations at the UNFCCC. To inform the ongoing negotiations, this paper sets out estimates of the potential CER supply by two groups of modelling teams, from research institutes in Japan and Germany. This paper presents an updated analysis of the potential supply of CERs issued for emission reductions occurring in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2020 based on a selection of possible restrictions for their transition.

This paper is based on analyses previously conducted by the NewClimate Institute, Öko-Institut, Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting Co, Ltd. and IGES. The paper itself is a cooperation between these Japanese and German research institutes. The preparation of this paper was supported by the Japanese Ministry of Environment (MOEJ), the German Ministry of Environment (BMU) and the German Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) in order to assist the ongoing negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris Convention. The contribution by NewClimate Institute and Öko-Institut to this paper was commissioned by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of BMU. 

Date: November 2020

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