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How many CDM credits remain on the market? - Implications for Article 6 transition and transparency under the Paris Agreement

Photo by Dominik Schroder

In the context of the negotiations on Article 6, transition from the Kyoto Mechanisms, especially the CDM, is a crunch issue. Many governments want to prevent any transition of CDM credits (CERs) while others want to transition all remaining CERs. There is a lack of robust information on CER volumes traded and used in the various carbon markets. On behalf of the Swedish Energy Agency, Zurich Carbon Market Association​​​​​​​ members Perspectives and Zurich University of Applied Sciences have therefore studied the volume and origin of CERs that are still on the market, looking into information in the various national registries and the CDM registry. This allows to understand which countries and project developers will benefit from a transition of CERs to Article 6. The study also draws lessons regarding governments clandestinely undercutting transparency requirements and unexpected effects of arcane accounting rules. This event aims to discuss the outcomes of quantitative research and embed them into a broader discussion on the observed trends of CER trading and lessons that can be learned for the Paris era.


  • Top-down and bottom-up analysis of CER trade and ownership: challenges of analysis and key insights generated 
    (Regina Betz, Zurich University of Applied Sciences)
  • Analysis of CER trading in the Kyoto era: Lessons for the Paris Agreement on CER transition, regulating future carbon trading and transparency on carbon markets 
    (Aglaja Espelage, Perspectives)
  • Comments by Luca Lo Re, IEA and Sana Lingorsky, UNFCCC Secretariat
  • Discussion with all participants of key issues from our study relevant for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement:
    • Supply/demand balance in CER trading: trends and lessons learned
    • What to do with the remaining CERs? Options for carbon markets and Article 6 negotiations
    • Lessons on transparency under Article 6: overcoming the confidentiality trap
    • Lessons for future banking and carry-over rules under Article 6- avoiding “zombies” and open-ended carry-over processes in the future.

Register here.

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